Yeah, I figured it would come down to this. If Lucien is considered flat-footed, then a melee touch attack of 12 hits. If not, then that attack misses. (Technically, Lucien would also get an AoO here, but I'm going to be fair and assume that he had absolutely no reason to believe that Zumba was about to attack him and was thus in no position to make an AoO.)
In any event, Lucien's Concentration check (30) is more than enough to beat the DC to cast while being grappled (20 + 3). It's more important to destroy the machine, so Lucien will follow through with the attack as stated and hope that saving the machine forces the baddies into making desperate, dumb moves. Fingers crossed.
